VipMeSa

The electricity industry is being restructured with the aim to encourage competition and provide consumers with more choices. The new electricity market consists of a wholesale market and a retail market. Generation companies bid every half-hour to sell electricity into the wholesale market while retailers buy electricity in bulk from the wholesale market and then sell to contestable consumers. All large energy users from 1 Jan 2003 will have to either pay according to the uniform Singapore energy price (USEP), which varies every half hour, or sign a contract with one of the supply retailers at an agreed price structure.

VipMeSa is thus developed to model and analyze the USEP and assist plant engineers to compare proposals from various retailers and to select a suitable retailer for each installation. The main tasks automated by VipMeSa are: estimation of energy production cost, analysis and forecast of USEP, review and forecast of electricity demand for each installation, creation of data structure for each retailers on energy charge and other related charges, calculation and comparison of total costs including sensitivity studies for fuel price adjustment and demand variation.

To generate every kWh of energy, the net production cost consists of about 30% on the capital cost to install generating plant and 70% on fuel oil. VipMeSa allows the user to enter the published capital cost in $/kW, unit capacity in MW, interest rate and number of years to recover capital investment, non fuel O&M cost and the specified operating hours per year. Based on these data, the capital cost to produce each kWh of energy can be estimated. A typical value for capital cost is 2.5 cents/kWh. The user may modify any of the parameters and a new capital cost can be calculated.

As for the fuel oil cost, VipMeSa allows the user to enter the heat rate in BTU/kWh (or thermal efficiency in percent), oil price in US dollars and exchange rate to determine the fuel oil cost for each kWh. Based on an overall system thermal efficiency of 34.5% and a fuel oil price of US $140 (equivalent to US $25 per barrel) at an exchange rate of US $1 = S$1.8, the fuel oil cost is 5.8 ¢ /kWh. Thus the net energy production cost defined as TCY cost is 5.8 + 2.5 = 8.3 cents/kWh. This TCY cost will be updated whenever there is a change in any of the parameters and is used as a reference for the analysis of USEP and retailer comparison.

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For each day and for each half-hour interval, starting from hour 0000 to hour 2330, there are 48 different values of USEP. VipMeSa converts these 48 prices from the published price released by EMC into a database file and categorized each day into D1D5 for weekday, D6 for Saturday and D7DH for Sunday and public holidays. In addition, it further classifies each day into three periods namely P1 for 0700 to 1900, P2 for 1900 to 2300 and P3 from 2300 to 0700. In this way, the price dependant on the time of the day and type of day can be more appropriately analyzed. The built-in graphical user interface provides options for the user to display daily, monthly, seasonally or annually. Options are also provided for the user to select only D1D5, D6, D7DH or ALL .

For display under option ALL, in addition to view graphically each half-hour USEP, it gives a summary of the average price, maximum price, minimum price and standard deviation for each day type i.e. ALL, D1D5, D6 and D7DH for the whole selected duration. For each specific day type display i.e. D1D5, D6 or D7DH, it gives the same type of summary information catered for duration P1, P2, P3 and P123. For any graphical display, the user may click the statistic option to view the average display in blue, maximum and minimum in red and the standard deviation in light-blue. For each display, the average oil price and US dollar exchange rate for the selected duration will be listed together with the calculated TCY cost of the selected duration for the user to make quick comparison.

For monthly or seasonally analysis, option is also provided for the user to click and remove those curves, which have extreme high USEP. VipMeSa allows the user to forecast the USEP based on the pattern on past months with option to make adjustment to the expected oil price, exchange rate and capital cost of generating plants. The forecasted USEP can then be displayed graphically and can also be used for costing in comparing various retailers.

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For large consumers, the electricity usage is recorded every half hour by a local meter expressed as an average kW and kVAr for each half hour. Thus, there are 48 values of kW and 48 values of kVAr. VipMeSa converts the recorded values in a database file. Similar to USEP, it categorizes into D1D5 for weekday, D6 for Saturday and D7DH for Sunday and public holidays. The built-in graphical user interface provides options for the user to display daily, monthly, seasonally or annually. Options are also provided for the user to select only D1D5, D6, D7DH or ALL .

For display under option ALL, in addition to view graphically each half-hour kW, it gives a summary of the average, maximum and minimum values of the recorded kW and standard deviation for each day type i.e. D1D5, D6 and D7DH for the whole selected duration. In addition, the total energy consummation in kWh, load factor and peak/off peak ratio are also shown. For each specific day type display i.e. D1D5, D6 or D7DH, it gives the same type of summary information for duration P1, P2, P3 and P123.

For any graphical display, the user may click the statistic option to view the average display in blue, maximum and minimum in red and the standard deviation in light-blue. For monthly or seasonally analysis, option is also provided for the user to identify/remove any day, which have extreme high or low load. VipMeSa allows the user to forecast the demand based on the pattern on past months with option to make adjustment to the maximum demand in kW, percentage and power factor. The forecasted demand can then be displayed graphically and can also be used for cost calculation to compare various retailers.

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For cost comparison, the user may select year, installation ID, contracted capacity and up to three retailers at any one time. The user may then select one of the 19 simulation durations, i.e. any one month from Jan to Dec, any one quarter from 1^st to 4^th quarter, 1^st half or 2^nd half year and for the whole year.

Within the specified duration and based on the demand file of the specified installation, VipMeSa calculates the energy cost for each half hour and shows the energy consumption and cost of each retailers for duration P1, P2, P3 and P123. The weighted average energy cost in cents/kWh and the total energy cost in dollar and in percentage are also illustrated. The transmission charge and other add-on charges with detailed break down for each retailer are calculated and the total unit cost and the total cost for the selected duration for each retailer are calculated and listed.

Options are provide for you to either print a report of the three selected retailers or to view a summary of all the past comparison for all the retailers. Each time when a comparison is made within the same study duration, but with different retailers, additional records will be automatically added and ranked accordingly. The user may then view or print the summary for any selected duration. The user may further select the sensitivity study by either changing the demand or oil price. VipMeSa recalculates the total cost and re-ranks all the retailers again according to the type of changes made.

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VipMeSa is available under a license for a single-copy price of Singapore dollars S$6,800. Support and updates are provided free of charge for one year.

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10H, Braddell Hill, #23-30

Singapore 579727

Tel:  (65) 6256-0101